| Title |
Time Series Analysis and Development of Forecasting Modelin Apartment House Cost Using X-12 ARIMA |
| Keywords |
Cost Index of apartment housing ; forecasting ; X-12 ARIMA ; selling price |
| Abstract |
The construction cost index and the forecasting model of apartment house can be efficient for evaluating the validness of thefluctuating price, and for making guidelines for construction firms when calculating their profit. In this study the previousconstruction cost index of apartment house was improved, and the forecasting model based on X-12 ARIMA was developed.According to the result, during the last five years the construction cost, excluding labor expense, has risen approximately to22.7%. And during next three years, additional 16.8% rise of construction cost is expected. Those quantitative results can beutilized for evaluating the apartment house's selling price in an indirection, and be helpful to understand the variation pattern ofthe price. |