| Title |
A System Dynamics Model for Analyzing the Effect of Housing Supply Policies |
| Authors |
Hwang, Sungjoo ; Park, Moonseo ; Lee, Hyun-Soo ; Kim, Hyunsoo |
| Keywords |
Real Estate Market ; Housing Supply ; Housing Policy ; Vacancies ; System Dynamics |
| Abstract |
Establishing housing supply strategies in Korean housing market is a crucial issue due to contradictory but concurrent two problems in market; one is the unstable working-class residential and the other is the high vacancy rate by the low-level of sales rate. Although government has been continuously implementing various supply policies in an attempt to evenly distribute houses as well as to keep supply and demand in balance, it is difficult to satisfy all of stakeholders, such as housing consumers, housing owners and housing suppliers. This paper, therefore, applies a system dynamics methodology and offers a dynamic and integrated model encompassing forprofit behaviors of each market participants. The proposed model simulates the future trends of house prices, the balances between supply and demand, construction companies’earnings and vacancy rate when applying various housing supply scenarios. From the simulation result, recent governmental small-size rental housing supplies in bulks should utilize private construction companies to stabilize housing distribution rate and private supply system as well as the supply and demand are well balanced. |