| Title |
A Development of Construction Industry Production Index(CIPI) with Temperature Effects |
| Authors |
Kim, Seok-Jong ; Kim, Hyun-Woo ; Chin, Kyung-Ho ; Jang, Han-Ik |
| DOI |
http://dx.doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2013.14.5.103 |
| Keywords |
Construction Industry Production Index ; Business Forecasting Model ; Temperature Effects ; Time Varying Coefficients |
| Abstract |
After 1990s, the influence of construction industry has been decreased on national economy and construction business condition has been changed on economic recession and boom repeatedly. Larger fluctuation of business condition makes a forecast of it to be more difficult. Uncertainty in business prediction results in damages on construction companies and stakeholders. Therefore, study on forecasting a construction business is very important. This study suggests the Construction Industry Production Index(CIPI) to predict a construction business in consider of temperature effects. The results show that construction business is much influenced by temperature effects certainly and GDP. With the CBFM, this study examines CIPI for 2013 with two scenarios: 1)with GDP growth rate of 3.5% 2)with GDP growth rate of 2.4%. Thus, CIPI would be used as the economic state index to display the construction business conditions. Also, CIPI will be utilized as basic methodology in the impact of climate change in the construction industry. |