| Title |
A Study on Variation of Economic Value of Overseas Carbon Reduction Projects with Risk Factors |
| Authors |
Park, Jongyul ; Choa, Sunghoon |
| DOI |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2023.24.6.045 |
| Keywords |
Carbon Reduction Project; Net Present Value; Variation of Economic Value |
| Abstract |
Recently, as climate change caused by greenhouse gases is intensifying, the international community has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The purpose of this study is to present the methodology and major considerations for investment judgment. Two actual cases of overseas projects were selected as study subjects. As an analysis method, the major risk factors were defined as a probability distribution, and the NPV was stochastically estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In addition, assuming a policy change, the range of NPV change was analyzed. As a result, the average NPV of project A was lowered by 19%, and the probability of showing a negative NPV was 12.2%. The average value of project B was lowered by 12.5%. Considering the policy change, project A can obtain economic benefits only when it obtains 72.9% or more of the total amount of carbon credits generated, and project B is economically feasible when it acquires 49.5% or more. As a result, the average value of project A is lower than the net present value under basic assumptions, so caution is needed in investment decisions depending on changes in major risk factors. Additionally, considering policy changes, the carbon credit distribution ratio should be differentially applied depending on the project size, and this was presented as a specific figure |