| Title |
Analysis on Correlation between Building Permit Area, Construction Commencement Area and Construction Orders on South Korea |
| Authors |
Kim, Dong-Min ; Lee, Jin-Hyup ; Kim, Kyung-Hwan |
| DOI |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2025.26.1.022 |
| Keywords |
Domestic Construction Orders; Building Permit Area; Construction Commencement Area; Vector AutoRegressive Model |
| Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to analyze the correlation among building permit area, construction commencement area, and construction orders using a VAR model. Additionally, it aims to forecast future values of construction orders. Despite recent positive indicators in construction orders, the actual growth rate may be moderated by escalating construction costs. Additionally, a notable disparity exists between building permit and commencement area, indicating divergent trends. This incongruence may be attributed to the overall surge in construction costs, potentially resulting in building permits not translating into actual commencements. The study suggests that this incongruence could significantly contribute to a declining construction industry. The results indicate a mutual feedback relationship among the three variables, suggesting that it is not a one-way correlation. |